Entries from November 2008 ↓

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I wanted to go back on something I posted a few posts ago.  You probably SHOULD keep investing in a 401(K) or other retirement plan, at least up to the company match, if you are lucky enough to get one.  The danger is in continuing to put your hard earned dollars into this market through some kind of standard index mutual fund.

My co-worker argues with me: Oh, it’s dollar cost averaging!  We’re buying on sale! It’s OK to lose, because I have a 20 year time horizon!!  What a bunch of Bull!   Why should you lose two years or more worth of increases of any kind, and actually take a loss?Then, take the next two years after that, or longer God forbid, to get back to where your balances equal just your inital investment?

Dollar cost averaging is for dupes! It’s to make you believe it’s EASY to manage your own retirement, so that your employer doesn’t have to feel guilty about not offering any kind of fixed retirement plan any more.  Meanwhile, you will LOSE 4 years of any return at all, plus principal, if you are just following the “conventional wisdom”.

Investments experts are not “dollar cost averaging”.  They are sitting on the sidelines with their cash. The are investing in short ETFs, currencies, and corporate bonds, all of which you likely have NO access to in your 401K.  Only the dupes keep “buying” stocks at these crappy levels, because they haven’t taken the time to learn something and stop their contribution from going into the same old index fund.  OF COURSE Wall Street is telling you to keep contributing, so they have someone to SELL TO.

So, put your $$ into your retirement fund, up to the company match, to keep saving, but keep it in the government bond fund or the savings account fund. What the heck, why not EARN 3% instead of LOSING 20%.  Then in 2 years when the market slowly creeps back, THEN switch your allocations.  For everything you want to save beyond your company match, set up a self-directed ROTH.  Put as much as you can in there.  And LEARN how to invest, find other vehicles that are actually making money (they are out there).  Otherwise, you’re just throwing it away.

I like Dave Ramsey.  It was because of his book, Total Money Makeover, that I started using the envelope system, and actually now save some money each month.  I think he’s being proven correct right now about being debt-free – and I’m working to get there myself.

But he’s still telling people to put their money in “quality index funds” so you can earn “14% over time” – WHAT??  There is NO truth to the 14% number (actually that’s the highest I’ve ever seen – 10%, 12% is the usual number).  In this market, telling people to do this is a complete misrepresentation of what their specific, actual results may or may not be.

The simple fact is that any money put into index mutual funds 10 years ago are back where they were then.  There has been NO increase in the last ten eyars – let alone 14%!!  How many people will blindly do this based on his suggestion alone?

He is good with the “get out of debt” idea. But he should just plain stop telling people where to put their investment money.  The whole “stick it in an index fund and sit back and enjoy the winnings” method is out the window.  It never really was true, and today even less so, that this is the best way to invest.

Bottom line:  If you don’t know anything about investing, stay out of the market.  Don’t get your advice from people on tee vee.  If you want to hire somone, you better know what the heck they are talking about, or you’ll get screwed, either intentionally or accidentally.  If you don’t know and don’t want to know, then buy CDs.  Anyone who invested in a 6% CD ten years ago would right now be far far ahead of anyone who had their $$ in the market.

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