You know, it’s hard to know whether to invest in mutual funds right now, with this crazy, volatile market. While I’m happy to muse here, I always am careful to say, I am just another person out there and no expert on investing or anything. Yet I know BS when I hear it, from television talking heads, and I know I’m more right than they are, because I did pretty well in the downturn since early 2008. So take what I say as just some ideas, something to think about, that might be different form what you’re hearing generally out there, the “conventional wisdom” if you will, which wasn’t so wise for the past ten months.
The biggest question I’m asked by friends and folks who know me and my track record is, when is it good to get back into mutual funds, or should I be in mutual funds or cash? There’s a big misconception here that has to be cleared up first, and that has to do with what is a mutual fund, and how do mutual funds work.
A mutual fund is a specifically designated account, in which investors invest money, allowing the fund manager to select different stocks or bonds to invest in for the investors. There is usually some kind of guideline as to the objective of the fund – such as, growth or income or both. It’s set up so that the dividends are split among the investors, as are the costs, and as an investor in a mutual fund, you are also an owner in the underlying investments.
Mutual funds became big because many people wanted to diversify without buying individual stocks, or just didn’t want to learn to invest in stocks. Retirement funds, 401(K)s and others, also made mutual funds more attractive, because employers could just give employees a list of mutual funds and employees didn’t have to learn anything about investing in the market (or at least that was the theory). You just buy mutual funds and hold forever until you’re rich – simple! Well, not so simple.
Without really knowing what was in the underlying mutual funds, and just blindly buying whatever color you were told to on the “allocation recommendation” chart from your employer’s fund manager, you kind of got screwed. As for other investors, they put money into mutual funds as though they were individual stocks, again, without knowing what was in the underlying fund.
A mutual fund, by the way, can hold bonds, or cash, or stocks. By getting out of mutual funds, you aren’t necessarily doing yourself a favor. There might be some mutual funds – like government bond funds – that have actually held up OK, better than a savings or money market option perhaps. So, you need to understand what is a mutual fund, and then choose accordingly.
Now, that said, you get BS from people like Dave Ramsey, or Carmen Wong Ulrich on CNN, who continue to tell the lie about 12% or 14% returns on “good growth stock mutual funds”. HELLO PEOPLE – if you’re looking for annual averages like those, they don’t exist any more, if they ever did! (Note the dates they cite from – usually something like “if you invested from 1984 to present” or “since the Great Depression” – completely unrelated to YOUR investment timeline…) This kind of poor advice makes only one person profit -the broker! They don’t want you to take your money out of the fee-generating funds, but the people getting screwed here are the ones listening to myths about “locking in losses” or “missing the upturn”. Ignore them. Learn to invest. Look at your balances and tell me if their advice is any good?
Or, just take a look at your favorite fund company’s prospectus for any given fund. Show me one that has earned 12% for the past ten years, or even since inception. Good luck with that. In fact, stock funds are down where they were ten years ago. It’s time to learn about mutual funds and not just blindly listen to someone who has no idea what they’re talking about when it comes to investing.
So, knowing all of that, what do you do? It’s hard to reinvest in index funds, because for example, the S&P is heavily weighted with volatile financial stocks. But you can’t really pick and choose stocks if you want to, or if you have to put your money in mutual funds as in a retirement account. Until you leave or lose your job and roll over into a self directed brokerage account – we recommend TradeKing.
You can also open self-directed Roth IRA accounts, Traditional IRAs and other accounts to take investing matters into your own hands. And while the indices have been climbing slowly back the past month, professionals in the markets are suggesting that this is a temporary bull market, that the underlying fundamentals – consumer spending, credit markets, etc. – are just not there to sustain high numbers going forward. Probably better to wait or start small for now.
The best thing you can do is to test the waters with some of your money – put a small percentage back in, and average up, as the market climbs put a little in again at a time. But pay attention, and don’t worry about small bumps down, but DO keep your eyes and ears open to see what the market’s doing, and know what your fallback is, whether it’s government bond funds or cash. It is not a bad idea to sit and wait for sustained upturns int he market, if mutual fund investing – as opposed to buying stocks, options and shorts – is your only choice right now. (PS – we recommend that if you get it on your cable channel, watch Bloomberg TV instead of CNBC or CNN. Less BS, more facts.)
