Entries Tagged 'Economic crisis' ↓

So since March, the stock market has been going up. I haven’t heard anyone on tee vee, except for one or two who are quickly dismissed, explain why. Instead we hear about all the amazing earnings surprises, returns to profitability… a bunch of crap.

Companies are showing “profit” because:

(1) They fired a few million people, reducing expenses.
(2) They CUT INVENTORY, and so spent less.
(3) Their income is coming from sales overseas, but not here.
(4) They froze or reduced salaries, benefits, etc. for the workers they have left.
(5) And plenty of other bookkeeping tricks to show “profit”, “growth” and “productivity”.

Goldman, JP Morgan, etc. etc., they are hugely profitable because why? Because unlike us average Americans, they have been getting interest free loans from the government. We are not talking about TARP here, but the loans available through FDIC, the Federal Reserve and other agencies, in the trillions of dollars. And our money has been used by Treasury to buy the bad assets off their books at inflated prices, prices no other Wall Street firm would ever pay. So, of course the S&P is up, since it is weighted with financial stocks.

If a firm has billions of free money to invest, and you invest it in the market for your own account, and you don’t lend any to anyone else, and you drive the market with your volume – what do you think happens? The firm makes money of course. It’s a pyramid scheme to rival Bernie Madoff.

And how many people still working are still putting money into their 401K accounts? And how many pension funds are still putting money in? The price of stocks will go up as long as someone buys these instruments, regardless of their value. That the index is higher, does not mean there is value there, the “value” is illusory.

Don’t be fooled. Nothing has changed. There is little or no money being lent, because the TARP money has been used to shore up the capital requirements of the companies that got the money. They were virtually bankrupt. They used taxpayer funded loans to make it look like they were profitable. As one talking head said this week, if today we were to try to strengthen our banking system by increasing capital requirements we would bankrupt these “too big to fail” banks.

Basically, the Government is doing nothing for the average American but borrowing our children’s meager finances. We are going into more and more debt. China and Japan are going to resist our habit eventually. There is no reason a crash like last fall can’t happen again tomorrow – there are zero safety nets in place other than the Fed’s willingness to print as much money as they can as fast as they can.

And how can any company be profitable if they aren’t selling anything? If we don’t have jobs, and are under a ton or debt, and aren’t buying as much crap as we did when we re-fi’d our houses to buy bigger plasma tee vees, where are all these amazing profits supposed to come from next year and the year after that? Our “growth” was based on credit. Well there ain’t no more credit now, so now what? No one who is telling you things are getting better can explain that one.

What can you do? Where do you invest in 2010, or for your long term future? You can’t just put money into an account today, and leave it for teh “long term”. You need to stay on top of what you are invested in, where that market is headed, and be ready to switch as the markets do. Learn to invest money and build your plan accordingly. Don’t count on stable markets, because for now, there is no such animal. There really never was, that was a story made up for the non-investor middle class…

Based on what I hear from economists who are HONEST about what’s going on, investments that might look good right now are some foreign currencies, some muni bonds, Asian stocks, and shorting the dollar. Keeping an eye on oil prices too. You can’t “buy and hold” or you will get burned. (Six months up does not mean you’re in the clear.) Instead, PAY ATTENTION. Learn for yourself about investing and what works for YOU, don’t spend time listening to bullshit con artists on cable tee vee. Read books, listen to alternative opinions. Make your own informed decisions. If you don’t want to do the work, you shouldn’t be in the market.

I finally heard Suze Orman say it last night – to set up a self directed IRA rollover account with a discount brokerage so that YOU are in control of your funds. I don’t think you can get video of her broadcasts, I will keep looking for the link.

At the beginning of the downturn in mid-2008, she had some typical, conventional  things to say, you know, the old “if you’re in the market for ten more years then stay put” crap, but she’s coming around.  Now she is telling folks facing imminent retirement that they need self directed accounts and to set up 401K rollover accounts – and not leave them at the mercy of a former employer.

She also answered one caller, whose employer has stopped the match and who makes too much to contribute to a ROTH, telling her NOT to “keep putting in the max to your 401k”.  Wow – she instead said do a non-tax deductible IRA, then roll it into a ROTH each year.  Go Suze!   BTW – so many money types say only put in up to the match, then go ROTH or otherwise – Jim Cramer, now Suze.  Maybe some folks will get the message.

So what do you do? Open a self directed IRA or a 401k rollover account with a top rated discount broker.  Learn to invest money in the markets.  LEARN what works, for YOU. Don’t expect anyone to tell you the right thing to do.  Then place your own investments. Today, you can even open a Roth 401k with a discount broker.

And while I”m at it – I’m passing this article around to all of my friends.  The article, by Jeffrey Goldberg, is titled “Why I Fired My Broker” and it explains why you should too.  Read it and understand why your employer’s 401k managers and financial advisors generally are a waste of your time.

Why I Fired My Broker, by Jeffrey Goldberg

Their job is to make money for their firm.  Not protect you from downturns.  As long as their losses aren’t as great as the losses in the index funds, they consider that a “win”.

There are many ways to invest money that are safer for the long term, but you will have to learn more about investing, learn more about the markets, and not just expect to park your money in a mutual fund somewhere and let it sit.  This is not just a “down” market. This is potentially a stagnant market, with little or limited growth for years, even decades, to come.  It requires a different understanding to be successful, as opposed to just waiting out a temporary downturn in a bull market as has happened in the past.  You will have to learn the best way to invest money for yourself, and not rely solely on tee vee talking heads or even experienced financial planners to help you. Keep your $$ in a CD or high interest checking account so you have cash available when you need it.

Stay tuned here in the next few posts as I list some publications you really want to read.  These will not give you the same old buy and hold bull – they will explain why the “advice” you’ve been getting has been skewed against you from the beginning.  Start with Crash Proof, by Peter Schiff  (the new edition, Crash Proof 2.0, is coming soon!).

Bottom line:  Take advice from NO ONE. Not even us.  And read outside the lines folks.  Don’t take conventional wisdom for truth.

One of the reasons people have lost so much money in the stock market recently, whether in their 401(K) accounts or otherwise, is that many of us never took the time to really learn to invest money. We were often “sold” the idea that mutual funds were safe, easy and didn’t require much in the way attention, because “over time” the stock market always goes up and stocks offer the best returns compared to bonds or other vehicles.

Well, that was pretty much not true. (Statistically, it’s only true if you are VERY selective in how you read historical data, and do not discount for inflation.) No matter what, all investors need to learn to invest stock, learn to invest money, and understand the stock market and how the cycles of the market work. In addition, it’s been pretty clear that the market was affected by unique financial instruments as well as a real estate bubble which continues to this day and may continue for the next few years.

So as you try to learn how to invest safely, whether it’s invest in stock, invest in bonds, or even invest in real estate, you have to realize you will never stop learning, because the market is dynamic and changing.

You will also find that there is no way to calculate returns, that is, promise returns of a certain percent, because “that’s what the market has returned historically”. the problem with that statement is that there is no historical measure that will match the exact years in which you are invested in the market. For example, if you started investing in the early 1990′s, after several crashed and discounting for inflation, you are pretty much back to where you started. Plus, historical returns do not mean that you will continue to get those in the future, as there are events that can occur – terrorism, bubbles and so on – that you can’t predict, and can affect your returns and investments dramatically.

There really isn’t any easy way to invest, because whatever else you do, you will have to put in the time to learn to invest according to your goals and risk tolerance, and it’s the time that few people have. You can’t simply rely on the market returns any more to just go up and up, so that you have a lot of cash when it’s time to retire. That does not mean there are not ways to invest money that will bring profits. It simply means that in order to make money in the market, you need to learn more, and also manage your accounts more actively than simply reassessing your holding once a year and that’s it.

To learn to invest money, the best way is to start with whatever services your broker offers. Many online brokers have a variety of educational materials, so that’s a good place to start. sites like Yahoo! Finance also offer many education materials and discussion groups for you to take advantage of. All of the major investing magazines, like Smart Money, Kiplinger’s and so on, have websites as well. That’s not to say that you should take their word for what to invest in, far from it. instead, use that information as a starting point. From there, you should also investigate good books about investing, from your local library, to learn to invest money in the right strategy for you.

So say we do have a depression, or a real bad recession. History shows that only through massive government spending – in the 1930′s it was WWII coming along, gov’t spending for the war – can we get out of the trough. It’s pretty clear the Prez is spending like crazy. But keep in mind, that some of the expenditures are also investments. Investments in a big way. Investments we’d be wise to mirror in our own portfolios.

Not only that – but the idea is, these investments will spur the kind of re-growth that builds our economy back up, but without the war and bloodshed. What exactly are our options here?

First – the green economy – green tech, green jobs – anything and everything green. Like it or not, industry new and old will have to be green. Believe in global warming or not, there is nothing wrong with making the world a cleaner place. In fact, it will make many, many people rich. And hopefully provide a planet on which to enjoy this new wealth. Will you be in on it, is the question?

Many people argue that green investment and things like cap and trade is in reality a tax on consumers of electricity. But that misses some major points. For example, we do not account for the “externals”, that is, we are not paying for the destruction we commit when we burn coal and create other greenhouse gases. We must begin to pay, because we can’t ignore the cost any longer. But also, with new green technology, the need to use dirty fuel will begin to lessen, so your costs as a consumer can go down thorugh conservation and adopting green alternatives. You won’t pay a consumption tax on something you don’t consume!

And keep in mind – the horse and buggy industry collapsed when cars came along. The mass transit revolution was trashed by government pushing cars and roads. So, here we are in another phase, where newer, better technologies are going to push out old dirty ones, and some companies will take a hit. But not for long, as alternatives come in like gangbusters into the marketplace.

Next there’s health care. Through technology there are major cost reductions to be had. The money is already flowing as part of the stimulus package.

A third investment the government is making is the auto industry. While it’s pretty volatile now, there’s a big committment to making sure we don’t lose all three automakers. which one or ones are left standing will grow into the future. (Could the Feds be unwiling to let GM go due to the release of the Volt next year? That works both for a green play and an auto play..)

Fourth, infrastructure and “shovel ready” future investments. A lot of increase has probably been built into companies short term already, but considering that there are a lot of bridges to be recuilt and schools and roads and so on, related industries re worth a look.

Ask yourself: What companies are on that bandwagon? What ETFs? What mutual funds? Look to invest in these in your 401(K), or start a self-directed IRA if you can’t invest in them through your workplace. Keep your eyes and ears open. Learn about the varity of investemtns out there. Don’t just save, but also conserve, put themoney aside into investments that make sense ina depression scenario. Don’t be a victim of it, ride the wave instead.

It seems like a lot of people are concerned about how to save money in a depression, or how to protect what they have in the near term. I’m getting queries like “moving to the country to survive a depression” and “How to earn money in a depression”.

You have to remember, when we think of what we might face in terms of a depression, that we know very little of true depressions (hardly anything in personal experience terms). In the 1930′s, the depression hurt a lot of people because there was no social security safety net, no unemployment benefits, no welfare and food stamps. It was because of that lack that these safety net programs where instituted.

In addition, it’s well known that Herbert Hoover let the depression sink in because he refused to spend any more. Guess where we’d be if some conservatives had their way? Why would they want to repeat the mistakes of Hoover? True, we are building up a huge financial deficit. But there could be – could be – growth to get us out of it, if all goes according to Obama’s plan.

Nevertheless – if a family faces job loss or downsizing, foreclosure, if big banks fail and consumers hunker down and stop spending, we could be in for some tough economic times. Yet I tend to see this as a step on a path to a new way of thinking about how we live – just like social programs resulted from the Great Depression of the 1930′s.

Here’s where things could go, IMHO. We could start learning to live with less money. OK, after we default on our homes and credit cards, we learn that we don’t need all the latest doo dads to keep us happy. We plant gardens. We keep the cars we have running. We barter and trade with our neighbors – lawn cutting for piano lessons or something. We turn to our communities for swap meets and recipe trades and getting back to basics. We start to be creative again, not just consumers of someone else’s creativity, that is, we bake and cook instead of going out; we play games and go for walks instead of spending hundreds a month on cable; we go to the movie at the town hall with our blanket and picnic instead of paying $50 or more at the theater. We take a composting class or a bike repair course and learn a new language with friends.

We find that we don’t need the things we have been conditioned to buy. We find that yes, if we save instead of spend, we put some people out of work, but we reach out to those people and help them become useful in other capacities. We learn that this too is just a phase, on our way to a more sustainable, friendlier, less consumption driven lifestyle, where there wasn’t much substance behind all that garbage.

My feeling is you’d do better in a community, not the country, where people can share and educate and lend and play and work together to make things work. You are not well served by harboring fear or complacency, but rather we can do so much better by harnessing the same “we can do it” strength that we felt after 9/11. We are facing difficulty as a country, not alone, but together, and only with constructive effort and creativity – not fear-mongering and ignorance and infighting – will be succeed and build something better out of our challenges.

And believe me – there are going to be amazing investment opportunities. I’ll be posting some of those to keep a watch on in the coming weeks and months.