April 16th, 2009 — Cash, Investing, Mutual Funds, Retirement, Savings
When your retirement money is invested in a really bad market, the first thing you want to do is think about reallocating. Reallocating means changing the portions of your money you have invested in each mutual fund. As you have seen, your 401(K) provider probably lists suggested allocations for your portfolio based on your age, and consists of what percentage your money should be in stocks, what percentage in bonds, and sometimes they tell you a percentage of your 401(K) to put in cash.
But these percentages go out the window in a recession or depression, because you want safety no matter when you are retiring. For the past year, stock prices have plunged. The allocations are probably wrong for your particular risk appetite. And if you call your 401(K) provider or employer, as I have, they will probably tell you, “Stay invested!” or “We feel the allocations are appropriate.”
Well, they really just don’t want you to move your money!
No, you have to learn how to reallocate your stocks on your own – based on a new market, and wait until things change or get better. There is no reason to stay in losing funds when you can reallocate to wait until a change for the better.
Now if you’re thinking of putting your 401(K) into cash, you should understand that that doesn’t not mean taking your money out of your retirement account. this could incur penalties that total a large percentage of your money – so don’t add penalties to your losses.
When you invest in your 401(K) instead put it into cash vehicles. Your broker will offer at least one or two of these accounts, since their plan allows for older workers nearing retirement to move into safer investments. These are the investments you want to take advantage of for now.
For example, if your broker offers a sample portfolio balance for someone within 3-4 years of retiring, use that for the their safest vehicles. some of these might be bond funds (usually government bonds), and some will be savings or money market options.
If you don’t want to take their advice, then see what funds or accounts they do offer, and move the portion of your money you want to protect into these vehicles. this is the way to move your 401(K) into cash, not by withdrawing all of your money. Then as the market slowly gets better, start moving small percentages back to stocks, based on the performance of the stock market. This is the beast way to use cash n your 401(K).
April 13th, 2009 — Economic crisis, Investing, stocks
With the market crash from 2008-2009, one could ask, are hedge funds finished? The quick answer to the question is “hardly”. There is no general definition of what is a hedge fund. In the beginning, hedge funds would help “hedge” investments by selling short the stock market, and so providing protection against volatility in the stock market. But now, the term is used more broadly to describe any kind of private investment partnership.
Globally, there are thousands of different hedge funds operating. Their main goal is of course to make lots of money, and to do so by investing in a variety of different investments and investments strategies. Often the strategies used are more aggressive than than the investment strategies of standard mutual funds.
Generally, a hedge fund operates as a private investment fund. The fund’s general partner selects different investments and also manages the trading activity and everyday operations of the fund. The investors or limited partners will invest much of the money and share in the gains of the fund. The general manager often charges a small management fee and earns a large incentive-based bonus if the investments earn a high rate of return.
While this might sound like a mutual fund, there are some important differences between mutual funds and hedge funds:
1. Mutual funds are managed by mutual fund or investment companies and are quite heavily regulated by federal law. Hedge funds, since they are private funds, have (so far) fewer restrictions and regulations.
2. Mutual fund companies invest only their client’s money, but hedge funds can invest their client’s money as well as their own money in the underlying investments.
3. Hedge funds charge their clients a performance bonus, usually equal to 20% percent of the gains above a certain floor amount. This is in line with equity market returns. Some hedge funds have successfully generated annual rates returns of 50% or more, even during volatile or difficult market environments. A mutual fund return is usually not as high.
4. Mutual funds have disclosure requirements, as well as other prohibitions against investing in derivative products, such as using leverage, short selling, taking too large a position in one investment, or investing in commodities. Hedge funds however may invest client funds however they wish.
5. Hedge funds are restricted from soliciting investments, and this is why you hear very little about these funds. During the five years prior to September 2008, some of these funds have doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled in value or higher. However, it’s important to remmeber that hedge funds do incur large risks and in this difficult economy, many funds will likely disappear after losing big.
Hedge funds are just another way to protect wealth, but in a tough economic environment, it’s likely that some restrictions will be imposed in the future.
April 3rd, 2009 — Budgeting, Cash, Get Rich, Make Money
I first read the Robert Kiysaki Rich Dad, Poor Dad books nearly ten years ago. Reading those book taught me some great lessons, and opened my eyes in new ways to how to think about financial security and wealth. It’s taken me a long time to figure out how to apply it (teaching old dogs new tricks isn’t impossible, but it’s still damn hard!), but I’ve been teaching my 10-year old too, and he gets it right out of the gate. Economic downturn be damned – this is a good time to get your stuff in order and plan to grow rich with opportunities all around.
But of all the Rich Dad products, the one that turned my head the most was playing his game, Cash Flow 101. In this game, you attempt to gain eneough passive income to cover your expenses, all while bumping into those speed bumps of Life. You keep track on an actual financial balance sheet, and learn what it takes to get wealthy.
I learned something in playing that game, that I couldn’t have noticed in real life as it unfolds – how I approached risk, and money, and what would have to change if I wanted to make money and grow wealth. This game was a priceless lesson. It was a way to “model” behavior, just like “real” economists do, and see how different strategies and actions would pan out – without suffering the real financial losses that could occur, and building confidence in making seemingly risky decisions that actually are the path to great wealth.
If you’ve never played Cash Flow 101, it’s a real eye opener. There are also groups all around the country that get together to play periodically. Give it a shot – it’s a financial literacy education you can’t get anywhere else.
And at the very least – if you haven’t read his books – get your hands on Rich Dad, Poor Dad, at the library even if you are short for bucks. (I saw at Barnes & Noble a compilatoin of his first three books for under $15!) If you read Rich Dad’s Prophecy – he called everything that is happening now, and is likely to happen, except it was years ago. He recommends that you start a business (and a good way to get started today is with online business ideas), so that you control your future income and wealth. There are tons of great ideas to pursue in these books.
Another benefit of reading these books are to answer the difficult economic questions of today. People are asking: Should I be in stocks? Should I get out of the market? Should I buy bonds? Should I be investing in real estate? Have we hit a bottom? Believe it or not, the Rich Dad series helps you figure out how to answer these questions – for yourself. This is the kind of education people need to avoid being at the mercy of brokers, advisors, television “experts”, in a time of economic downturn, but also great opportunity. Start – or enhance – your personal finance literacy with these books and games.
March 13th, 2009 — Investing
OK I’ve ranted quite a bit about getting out of mutual funds, and moving your 40(K) into cash. Now that we’re seeing a little upturn in the market, are you missing the big change in the market?
I doubt it. This blog is about saving cash – how to protect the money you have, save money when you can, and make money to keep building your wealth safely. So, if safety and wealth is what you’re after, jumping back in to a recessionary market after just a couple up days is really risky. Let’s look at the big picture here:
1. Although we’ve been fueling the economy with our buying for the past 10-30 years, Americans right now don’t have any more money, that is, we’re not getting any raises, we’re losing our jobs, we’re spending too much on healthcare and very other expense, and
2. We don’t know when we’ll have a lot of income in the future, it’s gonna take us years to pay off all our debt, (I don’t see anyone getting a 10%, 20% pay raise next year, do you?) and
3. We can’t get more credit even if we wanted to, and
3. We SURE don’t want any more debt, because that’s what got us in this mess, and that’s OK anyway,
SO…
4. How can you have “growth” stocks, or “value” stocks, when what makes them grow and be valuable is SALES? Who’s going to buy, to increase the profits from to make the market move up again?
So, when someone tells you to “buy a growth stock mutual fund”, you hopefully will understand that there isn’t going to be much “growth” until Americans are making more money from their jobs. Assuming they have one. You might want to consider learning how to buy stocks for beginners.
The fact is, it has been consumer debt that has been driving both the US economy and the entire global economy for many years, and now we just can’t afford it any more. How could it be anything other than a long time before the market comes back? You won’t find the answer to that on Carmen Wong, or
SquawkBox, or Mad Money.
Some things always will be needed, of course. For example: health care, which should get a big boost from the baby boomers’ aging and the stimulus; food; discount and warehouse stores like Wal-Mart or Target or Costco; some clothing maybe. Auto parts, but not autos. If you want to invest, you need to look around and think about what’s really needed, and what’s discretionary. But you aren’t going to find many mutual funds that give you that kind of choice.
There’s always the possibility that after we pay down our debt, and save some money, and have the cash for the big purchase we’ve been waiting for, then we might buy. Want to venture a guess how long that might take, for people to want to start buying again? When we see how nice it is though to have lots of money in our money market or mutual fund, and start seeing those four and five-digit numbers, it feels pretty good after years of not knowing how we were going to pay all our bills every month.
Paying down debt is not always a good idea either. For example, as I’ve said elsewhere here on the blog, if you spend all your extra cash paying down debt, but don’t have a decent sized emergency fund, what will you do for money if you lose your job? In this environment, it’s probably a good idea to pay the minimums on your bills, and put as much extra money as yo can into a money market or high interest online savings account. You won’t get a heck of a lot – maybe 2%- 3% – but it’s better than losing money for sure. You can put every extra dime into an emergency account, and then when things get better start using part of it to pay off your debt.
Some advisers like Dave Ramsey suggest getting a second or third (!) job to pay off debts. (Just ignore Dave Ramsey investing advice, he always recommends something that today does not exist: a “good growth stock mutual fund” - see above!) Not a bad idea to make more money. Your second job can fund your emergency savings just as easily. If you have trouble working outside the home, due to children or other issues, there are plenty of ways to make money online, using your computer, real ways to bring in some extra cash, even doing something like eBay online selling. For example, here are just a couple ideas I know of that are legitimate work at home business ideas, and can help bring in a little extra money, even if it’s only a couple hundred a month, that’s a car payment, or a grocery trip. So, if you want to make some extra cash, try these:
Today.com – easy enough to blog, and make some money, probably not get rich but extra cash can’t hurt!
BigCrumbs.com – you can save money when you buy, and if you get friends to sign up, you get even more savings. My extended family loves this one!
I’ll post a lot more about ways to make extra money, but for now – consider where you want to be in six months, or a year. Protect what you have now, by moving your money somewhere safe (unless you like taking a lot of risk). Then, cut your spending, save the extra, and start adding to it. Soon your emergency fund will look a lot healthier, and when the economy turns up, you’ll be ready to climb aboard.
March 7th, 2009 — Economic crisis, Investing, Mutual Funds, Retirement, Savings, stocks
I am just about ready to go on a crusade against Carmen Wong Ulrich of CNBC’s On The Money. Her show last night was criminal in the bad advice it shoveled out to listeners. I am not going to link there because you SHOULD NOT WATCH THIS SHOW (that is if you can tolerate her nails-on-blackboard voice for more than ten minutes). If you have been listening to her since September, she has NEVER told her viewers how to be defensive in this market.
It’s truly hilarious, if it weren’t so sad: She starts out saying “We’ve lost 20% this year, and a decade’s worth of gains.” So what’s their advice? Keep putting money into the market!!
If you have stock mutual funds in your investment account and have been listening to her since September and taken her advice to stay in the market and continue to invest, YOUR 401(K) IS DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 25% OR MORE. I already have a problem with investing in 401(K) products, they are not designed for people who don’t know what they are doing, and can be very dangerous – as so many are unfortunately finding out right now.
If you had done the OPPOSITE of what she said, and got your money out of stock mutual funds, and instead put your money into “conservative” investments – government bonds for example – you would be up anywhere from 1% to 5%. You would effectively be up 30% because YOU DIDN’T LOSE that 25% and in fact MADE money!
Which position would you rather be in? Why are you listening to this person?
Remember – she works for CNBC. This is the channel that continually trumpets the market bottoms; ask “when is the market going to turn”; trying to convince people that it’s a “good time to buy” and the market is “on sale”. Jon Stewart put it perfectly. You should really really watch that video. Then shut off the tee vee.
Her show’s “experts” talked about long term investing, putting aside what can wait for long term gains, and saving what you need short term. They describe how to take into stride the bear and bull markets. Except for one thing: This is far different than typical swings in the marketplace. This is not just a “bear” market. This is a RECESSION, and it could become a DEPRESSION. None of these so-called “advisors” are telling you how to invest in a depression… because they don’t know!
If you listen to Wong Ulrich, and follow her advice, you are selling out your investments to the professionals. When the market goes down, someone has to buy when someone sells. When professionals sell, can you guess who is still buying at these prices? And who is continuing to buy on the way down? That’s right, it’s YOU – you are financing the exodus from the market by the professionals.
If you are trying to figure out what to do with the mutual funds in your 401(K), if you are watching your investment account shrivel up and die, Wong Ulrich is a PERFECT example of what is wrong with the talking heads on television who supposedly are “helping” you figure out whether to get out of mutual funds.
I wish I could contact the poor souls who called in to her show yesterday. There were two in particular: J who is only 29 and S who is 44. I hope to God they did NOT take her advice (and WHY the hell are they calling her in the first place to learn what to do!!????).
J at 29 had moved his money into a conservative account until things get better. He is taking the 3% he can get there, and waiting for the market to get better. The “expert” she had on her show, “K.T.”, another advice catastrophe, told J that “You’re too young to be in a guaranteed account” – What the hell does that mean? That he should lose money because he’s “young”? That he can’t move his money in a year when the market looks up? That he needs to lose even more money so he can be there when it starts to move up?
I’ll ask again what I ALWAYS ask – Why should you lose more money, for another year? Two? Three? Why not SAVE what you have now? There is this amazing buy-and-hold myth that the investments in your 401(K) shouldn’t be touched. Why? If that were the case, they would prevent people from ever reallocating. But you can make changes for a reason – to save your money!
J had it right: He has reallocated his investment into something that is making money! I hope he IGNORES HER ADVICE, and the advice of her fellow idiot, K.T.
K.T. should be thrown in jail as a danger to anyone trying to save what tattered investment accounts they still have left. His firm is touted by Barron’s Magazine. So. What. Listen to the “advice” he gives to J: “OK, so you’re losing money but do you want security today, or security tomorrow?” What he’s telling this poor guy to accept is NO security today, and LESS security tomorrow! That’s his professional advice!! These people should be kicked off tee vee as dangers to the public! He says: “The last day of the bear market is the first day of the bull market.” Pithy, but what the hell does it mean? Good thing he has little pithy things to say as you continue to lose your hard earned money. Carmen responds: ” And you want to be there when it turns!” Well what would stop you from moving your money into the stock market when it truly has turned? Nothing, actually, other than feeling confident that it’s time to move into stocks – and not still uncertain because you’ve been burned by talking heads who know nothing about how you should really invest, choosing instead to spout “conventional” – meaning wrong – advice.
How about security today AND security tomorrow? How about protecting your investments, your hard work, your sacrifice?
Funny, Wong never asks her guest, “How much cash is YOUR company holding right now? What percentage of your accounts are in LONG stocks? and what are your 12-month and YTD returns?” Hmmm??
This rant is WAY longer than one post. Stay tuned to hear the dangerous advice she gave S, a 44 year old man who’s lost 40% of his account already…
And I’ll explain what options you have, to help you keep your money safe. Sort of.
Update: Due to pressure from the guest on the show, we’ve changed his initials. The advice still stinks. Read this post about Self-Directed Discount Brokers, and click the link to Why I Fired My Broker from the Washington Post. Remember – just because we are in another bubble, does not mean this advice is sound, solid, and reliable for the long term. We are still off 20-30% from the highs of 2007. Many other experts believe we are in another bubble that is going to burst eventually. Use your judgment. Learn exactly WHY the stock market is up since March (i.e., the banks have been infused with your tax dollars, the S&P is overweight with financials, etc.). Learn, and determine for yourself whether this is sustainable, and where your money is safest – don’t rely on “conventional wisdom” and “buy and hold”, including the posts on this site. Don’t throw away a percentage of your return potential by spending it on “experts”, paying fees and charges that are unnecessary. Do your own trading in a self-directed account, otherwise don’t expect to win in the markets, they are stacked against the small so-called “investor” who doesn’t want to know anything about the market but expects to be rich in 20 years. Too many people have already learned the hard way that this doesn’t work – don’t be one of them.